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Do You Think Global Warming is Warming the Winter? [POLL]

It's one of the warmest winters on record. Think it's due to global warming?

 

Paul Douglas, meteorologist and founder of Weather Nation, was calling January "Marchuary" because in most places it felt more like March. And now in March, some days have felt more like late April.

The gist of why it is happening, according to this article on Discovery News, is

  • La Niña is partly to blame for this winter’s weirdly warm weather across most of the United States.
  • The Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation explain the drastic difference between this and last year's winters.
  • La Niña is expected to weaken in the spring, allowing moisture to return to much of the country.

The Discovery article adds that "As for what's ultimately beneath the weather rut we're in, climate change is a tempting target," but Jeff Weber, a climatologist at the University Corp for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, points out that "we just can't say whether global warming is to blame for a sample size of one winter. Also, there isn't enough long-term data on La Nina to know whether two in a row is out of the ordinary or not."

According to a recent survey conducted by the National Survey of American Public Opinion on Climate Change, the "belief mark" is the highest it has been since 2009.

Many throw around the idea that the weirdly warm weather is due to global warming. What say you, readers?

  • Do you think the warm winter weather is the result of global warming?

    (Voting has been closed for this question)
    • Yes, and humans are causing it
        54 (43%)
    • No, but I do believe global warming occurs
        20 (16%)
    • Yes, I believe there is global warming, but it is not manmade
        7 (5%)
    • No, global warming is bunk! The Earth has forever gone through warmer and cooler periods.
        43 (34%)
    Total votes: 124
  • Your vote will only count once. This is not a scientific poll. View Results Vote!
Related Topics: Global Warming, Poll, Weather patterns, and warm weather

Dan B.

6:44 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

We really shouldn't bother voting and just wait to hear what the couple of people at MassDojo think.

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Keith MacNeil

6:48 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

Lol, sure global warming is warming the winter... But who really cares, the natural life cycle of a planet is to eventually burn up and become a star!

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Paul Doucette

8:42 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

There is no global warming. Back in 1970 the world was cooling and it meant by now we should be under 12 miles of ice. All caused by the same factors that are now being blamed for warming. Global warming is just convenient for Al Gore's movie career.Get over it "GREEN" people our climate is cyclical and that's it.

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Maureen

4:48 pm on Saturday, March 10, 2012

Very true Mr. Doucette. You're a smart man.

northboroughfriend

8:44 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

Global warming is really a term that has caused alot of confusion. It is really global climate change. The climate (overall weather patterns and averages) is definitely changing due to manmade forces and the overall trend is warming of the oceans and air and melting of icy formations around the globe. But the individual or yearly temperatures in one place are not due to global warming. The VARIABILITY (say, a cold snowy winter like last year and a warmer one) MAY be due to the warming trend/climate change because there is less of a buffer between weather trends. We will continue to have cold and hot seasons that are unseasonable for years and that is not directly attributable to the overall change. But it IS fun to talk about with one's neighbors, huh?

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Andy Koenigsberg

8:54 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

Yes, the climate is cyclical on a long term basis and has always changed (and as a person with two degrees in Geological Sciences - which gives me a good perspective). What is clear from the geologic record is that when carbon dioxide levels change in the atmosphere - the Earth's climate is affected. The physics and chemistry of this phenomenon are straightforward and have been known for well over a century.

Humanity has been pumping carbon back into the atmosphere in a couple of centuries that has been sequestered in rock formations in the form of coal and oil for hundreds of millions of years. It is increasing at a rate not seen in 56 million years - when an event called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occured. At that time, CO2 spiked to a level 1000 ppm higher than background levels in a few thousand years - causing terrestrial extinctions and species migrations. We are changing the atmosphere 10 times that fast. Global average temperatures are increasing apace and have accelerated in lockstep with increasing CO2 levels.

Yes - a single winter means nothing, just as last winter's cold and snow mean nothing. What does mean something is regional climate abberations that fall well outside of statistical norms - last year's Texas drought and the prior year's Russian drought are examples. Anthropogenic climate change means that regional climate will see wide swings - predictable and now observed - based on analyses by the NASA-Goddard Institute.

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Andy Koenigsberg

9:08 am on Saturday, March 10, 2012

It is also a fallacy that climatologists were predicting an ice age in the 1970s. I distinctly remember the cover of Newsweek back in 1975. That cover and the story were no more than the usual journalistic hype. Most of the scientific papers of period actually dealt with predicted warming - not cooling and those that did deal with cooling were based on analysis of sulfur dioxide and particulates being expelled into the atmosphere by the burning of coal - prior to the Clean Air Act and again, by Humans, not natural causes. Again - clear cause and effect. As these types of emissions decreased, the effects of increasing CO2 started to dominate. What has been clear is that humans can affect the climate.

If all this sounds nerdy and scientific - that is because that is the only way to describe these phenomena. Personally - I do not "believe" in anthropogenic global warming - I accept it as the best explanation for the observations based on the evidence collected to date. It is any wonder that most people with a scientific background have come to the same conclusion - way more than the public at large?

Note that I do not get any money from scientific grants to support myself here. Also note that there has not been one counter argument brought up by the people who "deny" anthropogenic climate change that has withstood scientific scrutiny.

So, get over it - start looking at the data, read the relevant peer-reviewed literature and then tell me what you think.

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Maureen

4:47 pm on Saturday, March 10, 2012

Thanks for sharing Mr.Koenisberg. Very intelligent comments.

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Beth Hook

10:10 pm on Saturday, March 10, 2012

I agree with Andy K. Individual "strange" seasons may not be due to Climate Change (or may).However, I have observed a warming trend for myself in the past 15 years. Autumn frosts have gotten later, from early Oct (approx 1-12th) to mid Oct (approx 12th to 20th). When I can keep a Rosemary plant alive outside all winter, we're in trouble.

Travis Cormier

8:47 am on Monday, March 12, 2012

The earth has not "warmed" since 1997. Climatologists have been caught falsifying data to help build their argument, yet we still believe in this global warming nonsense. We definitely need alternative sources of fuel and need to help with the conservation of forests, animals etc etc. I just do not want environmentalists controlling our lives like the EPA. Remember, you can't spell environmentalist without mental.

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Andy Koenigsberg

10:00 am on Monday, March 12, 2012

Simply not true - first, independent audits of climate data show no manipulation of data and one done by well known skeptic (Richard Muller, a physicist at the University of California) funded by none other than Koch brothers found that not only are the data good but that climate change is occurring.

See: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111020/full/news.2011.607.html

As far as the statement that the world has not warmed since 1997 - the first decade of the 21st century is the warmest on record and 2010 was warmer than 1997.

See World Meteorological Association: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/gcs_2011_en.html

and NASA Goddard: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20120119/

As I said before - this has nothing to do with "belief", it has to do with data and if you are going to make statements like that, back them up with some facts - not propaganda from right wing organizations funded by coal and oil interests.

Also, your statements are not enhanced by ad hominem attacks on the character of people delivering the message, including myself because, yes, I consider myself an environmentalist. That is the sort of tactic taken by people who have nothing else to support their position.

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Travis Cormier

8:50 pm on Monday, March 12, 2012

"The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html#ixzz1oxALC9vj

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

Mother nature has far more influence than man.

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Andy Koenigsberg

9:53 pm on Monday, March 12, 2012

Travis -

The difference between my citations and yours is that yours come from British tabloids and mine come from peer reviewed journals and scientific organizations. The Met office in fact had to put out a statement saying that the Daily Mail article you so proudly linked to was utter BS. And I quote:

This article includes numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre and for Mr. Rose to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading . . . [Mr. Rose] has chosen to not fully include the answers we gave him to questions around decadal projections produced by the Met Office or his belief that we have seen no warming since 1997. . . what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record for NOAA NCDC and NASA GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3.”

Now, if you want to look at the data - you can download (as I have done), the raw temperature data from NOAA or NASA, put it in a spreadsheet and make your own graphs for the last 120 years. It will show a warming trend right through the end of the last decade.

As the old saying goes - "It's easy to argue if you don't know what you are talking about."

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Travis Cormier

11:25 pm on Monday, March 12, 2012

http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/Minutes/2012/2012_1_25_Meeting/2012_1_25_Presentations/2012_1_25_GordonFulksPhD.pdf

http://blip.tv/jim-karlock/climate-orthodoxy-perpetuates-a-hoax-5924187

This guy is just another idiot like myself.

The problem with the graphs are that they prove absolutely nothing and they do not tell the entire history of weather patterns on the earth. The planet goes through temperature cycles. What you and other alarmists try to do is take a small fraction of our history and to force the green agenda down our throats. You are entitled to believe whatever you want. I know my feeble little mind could never comprehend what such an educated person like yourself understands, but I will stick to what I know. Thank you for your opinions.

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Andy Koenigsberg

1:15 pm on Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Mr. Cormier -

What is amazing is your willingness to accept whatever jives with your preconceived notions. Dr. Fulks lecture is very entertaining until you actually look at his information skeptically - which you are apparently unwilling to do. It would take me far more space than I can take up here to debunk every one of his arguments (and they have all been debunked) but for example - he criticizes Mann's hockey stick graph from 1998, yet the trends Mann found were verified by independent datasets other than tree rings a decade later. Curious that he does not cite this work - doesn't fit his preconceived conclusions. Fulks ridicules climate scientists as pushing an agenda to maintain funding - yet he does not disclose his own conflicts of interest vis a vis the Cascade Policy Institute he represents, which, if you trace its funding - goes back to the Koch Brothers and Exxon Mobil. As I have stated - I have no financial stake here.

I never said I was a "warmist" or an "alarmist" and I never said I was trying to shove any agenda down yours or anyone else's throat. You have jumped to that conclusion without any evidence whatsoever. All I have been doing here is trying to shed light on the issue from a scientific perspective, asking people to think and to correct misreprentations of fact that you keep offering up.

You are entitled to your own opinion Sir, but to paraphrase Senator Moynihan, you are not entitled to your own facts.

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Travis Cormier

8:21 pm on Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Your smugness and arrogance is like a fine art. You speak like you know the truth and that no other evidence that supports something other than what you believe is false or backed by some right wing conspiracy. You do make me laugh so I appreciate your posts. I love how you deny the FACT that the earth is cooler than it was 1000 years ago, but civilization must have had a huge carbon footprint back then right? Your reckless claim of the involvement of the Koch brothers is not only wrong and unfounded, but predictable. Anyone who paid attention in high school knows about sun spots and the cycles of solar storms etc. The fluctuations in the earths temperature would then make perfect sense. A scientist would look at everything and not just the little bits and pieces that happen to fit into their hypothetical theory. Mann is a fraud, his model is questionable at best. Sorry bro but that's the truth, I know it doesn't support what you believe but truth hurts. You can continue to be part of the sheeple and run right off the cliff but I won't allow myself to be that ignorant and be controlled by Al Gore and Capital Cronies.

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Travis Cormier

8:48 pm on Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Like you said, FOLLOW THE MONEY. Who stands to gain from the global warming scare? Solydra? Evergreen Solar who screwed Massachusetts out of millions? How much has Obama and others of the socialist wing of the Democratic party raked in on green energy? I have been educated in L.E.E.D. building and have built many L.E.E.D. certified buildings, and I'll let you in on a little secret, these buildings are far more expensive to build because of the "L.E.E.D." specifications and materials, yet there is very little difference from the previous ways of commercial building and a L.E.E.D. certified building. IT'S A MONEY MAKING SCAM! I am someone who has benefited, from this scam, but I will not sit here and deny that it is a scam. I have done a peer research paper about L.E.E.D. certification at W.I.T. and the benefits for a construction firm to be L.E.E.D. certified. State and Federal law is forcing L.E.E.D. building under this certification. It all stems from this global warming scare. It's cost to taxpayers and consumers is nothing short of obnoxious, but the lobbyist who are shareholders in these firms that manufacture these products continue to scam the taxpayers out of government funding, like solyndra for example. We need alternative sources for energy not because of global warming, but we will run out of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. Unfortunately there is no feasible or economical way to quickly move from fossil fuels to alternative means of energy.

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Travis Cormier

8:56 pm on Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Your points are interesting, but nothing you bring to the table makes them valid. It is almost like arguing the existence of God, both sides of the argument could be correct but there is no definitive evidence to prove either. From everything I've seen, read, and studied, I feel comfortable in my belief that there is no such thing as global warming and that man has very little influence as compared to the natural evolution of the planet. Looking at the evidence, to me, it is clear that the earth's temperature is continuing to follow the pattern it has for millions of years. If I were to focus only on the 120 years, than I would say , woah, maybe you have something here, but unfortunately, one has to examine all of the date to get the full clear picture.

Paul Bishop

11:23 am on Monday, March 12, 2012

Take a look around you, the changes man has made to the planet in the past few hundred years. Roads, vehicles, industrial farming on huge scales, cities, all the kinds of stuff we as humans do. Not one person can deny the asphalt of the road in front of their house, or the silicon and plastic of the computer in front of them right now. All of these changes and products and services that we have come up with in the past few hundred years of course add up and in time, it adds up to a small, but noticable impact. That impact is a gradual temperature change, overall, of the planet. The problem is that what we as humans look at as a small change (a degree or two over decades) the ice packs at the poles and the chemistry of the oceans looks at as a huge problem. Rising sea levels from melting ice, more atmospheric instability leading to more severe and frequent storms, and things that we as humans DO care about and notice.

I simply do not understand anyone who cannot even comprehend the above "common sense" version.

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Andy Koenigsberg

12:27 pm on Monday, March 12, 2012

Paul -

The problem with "common sense" is that it often flies in the face of reality.

Common sense tells us that the objects around us are solid when they are, in fact, made up mostly of empty space at the atomic level.

Common sense tells us that time and mass are the same everywhere, when in fact, time slows down and mass increases the faster an object travels.

Common sense tells us that 1 degree of average global temperature change is not much when it actually represents an enormous amount of heat energy on a global scale.

Science can be hard to comprehend unless you take a lot of time to learn it. It's even harder when our political leaders thumb their collective noses at people who are educated as elitist snobs (i.e. Rick Santorum et al).

My common sense tells me that "we" won't do anything about this issue until we get dope-slapped up the side of the face by some event or series of events that illustrate the problem in ways that cannot be attributed to local weather versus changes on a regional level.

Personally, I will keep speaking out about what we are doing to our planet as long as I continue to see people arguing from ignorance.

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Paul Bishop

1:19 pm on Monday, March 12, 2012

The point is that many seem to argue FOR ignorance..

Repeatable, measurable, and predictable. That's science. It's boring in many ways, nerdy, and a painstaking process. The whole goal is simply to look at things that have happened to predict what may happen in the future.

Of course, these are probably the same folks that reject science on the grounds that it was invented by an Iraqi...

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Paul Bishop

11:14 am on Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Travis, facts are facts. Religion requires faith, while science does not. Even when presented with irrefutable evidence, your response is to dismiss it without examination, claiming it is either falsified, mishandled (but you can't even suggest how or by whom, a conspiracy requiring thousands of people over hundreds of years), or just 'wrong' without anything to back you up but hyperbole.

On one hand, we have both logic and data, on the other, an unshakable OPINION. That's callled Dogma.. Which has a place in religion, but not in science.

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Andy Koenigsberg

12:25 pm on Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Mr. Cormier did not pay attention to my first post, in which I noted that climate is cyclical over geological time, as he himself said repeatedly.

However, my concerns are not based on the current computer models - but on what geological scientists have observed in the geologic record.

When no CO2 was in the atmosphere - this planet was frozen from pole to equator, and this happened twice in geologic history and only warmed when CO2 levels increased due to volcanic activity. CO2 levels 250 million years ago spiked from levels similar to modern pre-industrial levels (200 ppm) to 1800 ppm and global temperatures increased from 12C to about 20C. This, among several factors, contributed to the largest mass extinction in the history of the planet. Similarly, a spike of atmospheric carbon 56 million years ago coincided and with a smaller, but significant mass extinction. WE are increasing CO2 levels at 10 times the rate of the 56 mya event. At the current rate of increase, we will be at 1000 ppm within 150 years.

I find this information very troubling. Mr. Cormier obviously does not because he thinks this whole issue is a left wing political plot.

From a political perspective, it is quite clear that the world's major governments have decided to do nothing about this issue, so he need not worry about having a left wing agenda shoved down his throat.

Regardless, I will continue to speak from a scientific perspective, not a political one.

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Paul Bishop

1:47 pm on Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Andy... Before he jumps on it.. There has never been a time of no co2 in the atmosphere, though there have been periods of reduced percentage content. Co2 is not inherently bad, merely a heat trap.

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Paul Bishop

1:53 pm on Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Also, Andy, it does concern me that you attribute mass extinction solely to co2 levels. Iridium deposits among other evidence indicates that planetary impacts ocurred at these times, which caused COOLING events in the short term, elimininatimg the food supply for the megafauna. Co2 may play a part, but be careful not to commit the same sin as Travis... Don't ignore evidence in favor of dogma...

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Andy Koenigsberg

3:18 pm on Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Impacts have only been conclusively demonstrated at the Cretacious-Tertiary boundary (aka, the dinosaur killer). There is no evidence for impact generated extinctions elsewhere in the geologic record as iridium has not been found above background levels at other boundaries. At the time of Snowball Earth - levels were very low, according to the works I have read - so from that perspective - I stand corrected - thank you.

The Permain-Triassic extinction event has been tied to a daisy chain of events that started with massive volcanism which increased CO2 levels, caused caused chemical changes in the oceans. Not going to get into the details here but the impacts were signficant worldwide (70% terrestrial extinctions and 90% + marine).

Regardless, I am done with this particular thread.

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